Bully for Goldman Sachs!
August 13, 2012 in Investment
In forecasting the number of medals Britain would win, 65. The FT had an interesting comparison running at www.ft.com/medals.
They had four economic models tested in gauging the number of medals won.
These were by Emily Williams, a PhD candidate at the LSE, Daniel Johnson an economist at Colorado College, a couple of Goldman Sachs Economists and a PWC model explained in their briefing paper Modelling Olympic Performance.
Predictions for the UK: Williams 61, Johnson 46, Goldman Sachs 65, PWC 54 and the consensus 56. So much for the wisdom of the crowds and averages!
But how did they perform with the other top countries?
Predictions for the US: Williams 103, Johnson 99, Goldman Sachs 108, PWC 113 and the consensus 106. US got 104, this time Williams was much closer.
Predictions for the China: Williams 93, Johnson 67, Goldman Sachs 98, PWC 87 and the consensus 86. China got 87, this time PWC was spot on
On the whole the predictions were rather spotty and it once again goes to show that economic indicators are fairly iffy when you want to make bets about the future.