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In forecasting the number of medals Britain would win, 65.  The FT had an interesting comparison running at www.ft.com/medals.

They had four economic models tested in gauging the number of medals won.

These were by Emily Williams, a PhD candidate at the LSE, Daniel Johnson an economist at Colorado College, a couple of Goldman Sachs Economists and a PWC model explained in their briefing paper Modelling Olympic Performance.

Predictions for the UK: Williams  61, Johnson 46, Goldman Sachs 65, PWC 54 and the consensus  56.  So much for the wisdom of the crowds and averages!

But how did they perform with the other top countries?

Predictions for the US: Williams  103, Johnson 99, Goldman Sachs 108, PWC 113 and the consensus  106. US got 104, this time Williams was much closer.

Predictions for the China: Williams  93, Johnson 67, Goldman Sachs 98, PWC 87 and the consensus  86. China got 87, this time PWC was spot on

On the whole the predictions were rather spotty and it once again goes to show that economic indicators are fairly iffy when you want to make bets about the future.