Real sluggish

July 17, 2012 in Uncategorized

Tags: absa, anglo america, gold, jse, oil, shoprite, vodacom, walmart

A dream is a creative vision for your life in the future. You must break out of your current comfort zone and become comfortable with the unfamiliar and the unknown. – Denis Waitley

All is not well in the US (they announced disappointing retail sales data yesterday) and they just so much like to portray all the bad stuff upon Europe. Since major media companies are American owned, they can do so. Yet another sign of weakness in the economy igniting hopes again for the Fed to provide a money boost or at least give an indication with the Fed’s speech this afternoon.

Economists of major analysts like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have lowered they growth forecasts for the US.

Even the IMF (International Monetary fund) hinted that too much tightening in the world’s biggest economy is risky to global growth. The IMF did cut their global growth forecast yesterday and reminded policymakers in Europe to act.

The JSE showed little enthusiasm with the Fed speculation, but still we are caught in sluggish trade.

More direction for our shares will only be provided this afternoon, when Germany announces their ZEW Economic Sentiment and the CPI figures are announced in the US. The Canadian interest rate decision might impact to a lesser extend.

Gold and Oil holding steady in anticipation of the Fed’s indication.

Close to home: Anglo America was ordered to disclosed documents to SA gold miners suing the company / ‘Probe into ABSA takeover needed’ / Vodacom slashes UK roaming rate for SA subscribers / Property demand in Cape Town higher than national average / Walmart advent a boon to SA shoppers / South African Airways has reportedly sold it’s exclusive daily landing spot at Heathrow, London / Shoprite may be loosing out to Pick’nPay /

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessday.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: None, too sluggish.

Current market snapshot

Market	Bid	Offer	Updated	Change
Spot Gold (100oz)	1596.70	1597.20	10:59	7.51
Spot Silver (5000oz)	2754.7	2757.7	10:59	22.9
Wall Street	12767.0	12771.0	10:58	42.5
Brent Crude	10288	10297	10:59	44
Germany 30	6593.3	6594.3	10:59	19.5
FTSE 100	5662.3	5663.3	10:59	-3.5
South Africa 40	29671	29687	10:59	36
Platinum	1427.7	1429.7	10:58	11.5

Happy trading

Melanie

Interested in trading yourselves; we provide training and mentoring.

We also offer managed portfolios for shares and CFDs, Money Market, Treasury Bills and property shares.

Email: info@charterassets.com

Tel: +264 (0)61 308628

Skype: melanie.charter

Or just open a CFD Account and get started:

Open an SA account – Open SA Account.
This account will give you access to the JSE only.
The account will need to be funded with SA Rand.

Open an offshore account – Open FC Account.
This account will give you access to Foreign instruments including the JSE.
The account will need to be funded in a foreign currency (GBP, USD, EUR etc).

This is my personal opinion. Charter Asset Management (Pty) Ltd accepts no liability to this information or any information linked to it.

by mallen

July 13, 2012 in Uncategorized

No Comments »

Slightly up, not much

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. – Albert Einstein

The JSE is trading indecisive this morning. China growth is slowing yes, but still grew 7.6% in second quarter. And there are signs after all that the dropping of interest rates and other precautions are giving the Chinese economy stabilization – so that was a positive for the JSE.

The credit rators were at it again and with a surprise drop on Italy’s’ rating, Moody’s send the markets right back to shakiness. Let’s give the already beaten Europe another slap. Also France’s biggest carmaker unexpectedly announced an 8000 job cut saying they expect the European auto market to shrink 8% this year and they have to prepare for that.

= There we are on a zero sum for direction today.

Oil seems to have caught a solid support on its price and making a good effort to rise.

Gold rose slightly on the Chinese data, but fell back again with no news indicating QE3 out of the US. “The QE story is off the table now. Could it come back? Yes, it could, but the window of opportunity is closing and the latest they can do is August,” said Dominic Schnider, UBS Wealth Management in Singapore.

Trading later today will be influenced by earning reports form big companies like JP Morgan (with all there corruptive headlines recently), Wells Fargo and Google.

Data today: Some Core Producer Price data is to be announced from the US. PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Close to home: Building of Port Elizabeth wind farm begins / New deal will lift BEE stake in PPC to 26% / ‘Thriving’ Nedbank to post solid growth / Property pundits forecast good decade for SA / Depressed mining sector opportunity

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessay.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: Long Anglo Platinum 42500c

Current market snapshot

Market	Bid	Offer	Updated	Change
Spot Gold (100oz)	1581.05	1581.55	12:28	9.24
Spot Silver (5000oz)	2739.9	2742.9	12:28	24.1
Wall Street	12612.5	12616.5	12:28	39.5
Brent Crude	10207	10216	12:28	109
Germany 30	6479.7	6480.7	12:28	56.5
FTSE 100	5648.3	5649.3	12:28	36.3
South Africa 40	29482	29492	12:28	207
Platinum	1425.7	1427.7	12:28	14.2

Happy trading

Melanie

We offer personal assistance and mentoring:

Email: info@charterassets.com

Or just open a CFD Account and get started:

Open an SA account – Open SA Account.
This account will give you access to the JSE only.
The account will need to be funded with SA Rand.

This is my personal opinion. Charter Asset Management (Pty) Ltd accepts no liability to this information or any information linked to it.

by mallen

Foreign company earnings dragging us down

July 11, 2012 in Uncategorized

No Comments »

Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself. – Rumi

The JSE is in rather negative territory this morning. The culprits are major companies like Burberry’s in Britain followed by more weak earnings report in the US. Burberry trades in luxury goods and until most recent the high-end goods sector was still booming. Not a good sign when even the riches stop buying…..

Rumors are surfacing that Italy might ask for more Euro Zone aid.

Our ‘brilliant financial system’

I read an interesting piece from Mark Buchanan. In Nature we have great complex systems and they work – modularity, one function based on another. Our financial system is pretty complex yes, but in there “everything is linked to everything”. Buchanan says, “Financial engineering should learn to avoid this architecture of concentration and interconnectedness, just as surely as biology has.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-10/living-cells-show-how-to-fix-the-financial-system.html

Gold coming off its lows, but the dollar is still preferred in the current circumstances. It’s an old paradigm that the dollar is the currency of the land of milk and honey (safety), but if ya ask me, it aint as healthy as it seems……

Oil also trading higher in anticipation of lower US stock piles; to be announced this afternoon. “The market is neutral at the moment, stabilizing after a sharp decline in the second quarter,” said Ken Hasegawa, commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan.

Data today: Watch US trade balance figures and comments from the Federal Open Market Committee….. might there be a QE3?

Close to home: Mondi buys 93% of German packaging company Nordenia / Standard Bank accounts for almost 60% of issuances. Total issuances on track to hit R30bn (Is that a good thing?) / Standard Bank walks out of Dubai talks / Nedbank aims to raise R4bn from ‘green bonds’ to fund renewable energy projects (and my credit card statement is still 3 pages long when reflection only 5 transactions….) / Coal of Africa shares fall knocked by environmental concerns over mining at sensitive site / Gold Fields lambasted over mine deaths / Xstrata sets date for Glencore

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessay.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: I am still holding long ABSA, long Sasol and short on MMI; all of them still recent. The only one growing a beard is the JDGroup long, but I am not willing to give up on that one yet. Today you can long Sappi at 2605c

Current market snapshot

Market	Bid	Offer	Updated	Change
Spot Gold (100oz)	1574.38	1574.88	12:25	7.43
Spot Silver (5000oz)	2701.7	2704.7	12:25	21.8
Wall Street	12673.0	12677.0	12:24	23.5
Brent Crude	9880	9888	12:25	82
Germany 30	6446.9	6447.9	12:25	3.5
FTSE 100	5642.0	5643.0	12:25	-28.8
South Africa 40	29539	29549	12:25	-266
Platinum	1427.7	1429.7	12:25	-1.7

Happy trading

Melanie

We offer personal assistance and mentoring:

Email: info@charterassets.com

Or just open a CFD Account and get started:

Open an SA account – Open SA Account.
This account will give you access to the JSE only.
The account will need to be funded with SA Rand.

This is my personal opinion. Charter Asset Management (Pty) Ltd accepts no liability to this information or any information linked to it.

by mallen

Commodities are risky, but tangible

July 10, 2012 in Uncategorized

No Comments »

Tags: absa, adcock, anglo gold, exxaro, famous brands, gold, gold fields, gold one, jse, kumba, market, oil, sasol, standard bank

Every day do something that will inch you closer to a better tomorrow. – Doug Firebaugh

We do not see much happening on the JSE this morning. The economic news from outside still isn’t too bright and resources, the main driver to our JSE, do not thrive on all these signs of slowdown. Especially China is a buzz word that more and more South African and Namibian Companies bought into…. China is THE market to do business with.

We just heard China’s June imports rose less than anticipated, following news that their Jun consumer price index only rose 2.2%, slowest in 2 years. They also cut their interest rate twice in one month.

European stocks are showing good resilience against the Chinese news. Support to Spanish banks seems on a stronger path and the market likes that. The Euro-area bailout fund might just be able to fund banks directly and that takes pressure of the Spanish government

With a weakening economy oil is still in a downward trend. Since there is no threat on oil production from Norway anymore, the strike ended; there is no real reason for the oil price to climb as yet.

“The market is being a little pessimistic and cautious about the global economy, and investors are choosing the dollar as the top safety haven. The strength in the dollar is in turn putting pressure on gold prices,” said Li Ning, analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures.

Some data is due out of Britain today that will carry some weight since it indicates economic health in the euro zone, so keep an eye on their manufacturing and industrial production figures.

In my opinion with all the uncertainty going around people will eventually turn back into investing in something real…… i.e. commodities! As much as they are regarded as high-risk, commodities are more tangible than financial and similar companies that are part of the ‘card-house game’.

Close to home: Members want probe into Discovery fee / Adcock buys Indian medicine business/ Ethos partners up with Standard Bank and RMB Ventures / Gold One plans new deals to hit target / AngloGold plans mining renaissance / Gold Fields reopens sections of Kloof Driefontein Complex / Investec Property Fund buys retail properties worth R1.2bn / Kumba warns of lower interim results, drags Exxaro down / Famous Brands extends Namibian footprint, awarded to De Wet Oosthuizen

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessay.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: I did not post a report yesterday, but had ABSA as a recommendation yesterday at 136.75; maybe see if you can get in today. Did I share Sasol with you… not sure, but you can long that one too.

Current market snapshot

Market	Bid	Offer	Updated	Change
Spot Gold (100oz)	1592.94	1593.44	12:22	5.56
Spot Silver (5000oz)	2739.8	2742.8	12:22	6.8
Wall Street	12795.5	12799.5	12:22	63.0
Brent Crude	9919	9927	12:22	-107
Germany 30	6468.7	6469.7	12:22	75.3
FTSE 100	5674.5	5675.5	12:22	48.7
South Africa 40	29939	29953	12:22	172
Platinum	1444.0	1446.0	12:22	-0.3

Happy trading

Melanie

We offer personal assistance and mentoring:

Email: info@charterassets.com

Or just open a CFD Account and get started:

Open an SA account – Open SA Account.
This account will give you access to the JSE only.
The account will need to be funded with SA Rand.

This is my personal opinion. Charter Asset Management (Pty) Ltd accepts no liability to this information or any information linked to it.

by mallen

Finally back on line

July 5, 2012 in Uncategorized

No Comments »

Tags: absa, exxaro, gold, jse, kumba, market, nedbank, oil, vodacom

“Each one of us has a fire in our heart for something. It’s our goal in life to find it and to keep it lit.” – Mary Lou Retton

Sorry folks for not sending out any reports for almost two weeks now. We experienced major connection problems. When finally back online with a still very unstable connection, I had to get acquainted with the new blogging site…..

Something is to be said about all these changes – Facebook profile / new cell phone makes / new car makes / new iPad versions / new statement looks / new blogging sites. Bet your bank has changed their online site at least once these past 3 years, and you ABSOLUTELY LOVED IT.

As a service provider you get hammered if you do not reinvent yourself or your product regularly, but does it really do much good……

I do spend a lot of time just trying to adapt myself to everything that is offered that gets updated / upgraded all the time. Rather tiresome I can tell you.

Needless to mention the financial impact with staying up to date……..

Let’s focus on Mr. Market. I’m not going to dwell on the past two week’s happenings, Barclays Bank Libor Fixing saga etc. etc.….. Today a new important focus is the rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) this afternoon. The majority believes they will drop 25basis points, but some exceptions think not. If not, we will definitely se more pressure on especially the commodity side of things. A sector already hit hard on our JSE.

If they do drop…….financial institution fees will soon (in some instances they already do) surpass the interest you can earn, heading for a negative return on savings are we? An entire subject to ponder on its own airtime.

Bank of England is also on policy meeting today, expecting to put another 50bil pounds into their financial system barely two months after they halted it….

Greece is meeting with other senior officials today to assess progress on receiving the 130bil Euro bailout and hopefully negotiate some easing on the harsh measures put upon them.

Once we digested the ECB rate all attenetion will turn to the US job report on Friday. “Weak economic figures very often lead to more monetary stimulus which the market likes, so following this perverse logic a bad figure would not necessarily be bad for the market,” said Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets.

Gold: “In the medium to long run, a rate cut will help underpin gold prices,” said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures. Low interest rates make way for ill-fated printed money, make believe in gold.

Oil not back in favour yet: There are possible delivery disruptions from the tension in Iran, but those are overshadowed by 3 much bigger issues. Europe facing recession, the US economy is struggling and China’s growth is visibly slowing.

Close to home: Vodacom CEO Uys to leave next year / Massmart sales up 15% for full year / Reinet to acquire pension fund in UK / Aquarius calls on platinum miners to cut output to alleviate pressure on the price of metal / ABSA feels parent Barclays downgrade by Moody’s

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessay.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: June was good!! 3% on all recommendations: Long Lonmin / Short SXRUranium / Short Nedbank / Short Kumba / Short Exxaro / Long MMI and Long Vodacom. Wow, we had no dogs at all.

Our doggy ‘Long JD Group’ from May is still tagging along, but I have no doubt we will eventually get there.

For today, try Astral Foods long and Sasol long.

Current market snapshot

Market	Bid	Offer	Updated	Change
Spot Gold (100oz)	1617.37	1617.87	11:58	2.69
Spot Silver (5000oz)	2823.8	2826.8	11:58	10.5
Wall Street	12931.0	12935.0	11:58	-12.3
Brent Crude	10162	10170	11:58	188
Germany 30	6595.8	6596.8	11:58	40.8
FTSE 100	5694.5	5695.5	11:58	18.0
South Africa 40	30012	30022	11:58	116
Platinum	1487.2	1489.2	11:58	7.0

Happy trading

Melanie

We offer personal assistance and mentoring:

Email: info@charterassets.com

Or just open a CFD Account and get started:

Open an SA account – Open SA Account.
This account will give you access to the JSE only.
The account will need to be funded with SA Rand.

This is my personal opinion. Charter Asset Management (Pty) Ltd accepts no liability to this information or any information linked to it.

by mallen

Weekend confirmed the down trend

June 25, 2012 in Uncategorized

No Comments »

Life consists not in holding good cards but in playing those you
hold well. – Josh Billings

Italy, Spain and France sat together over the weekend to
twist Angela Merkel’s arm to allow the creation of Eurobonds. She only agreed
on a 130bil euro package to boost growth.

Now there is another European Union summit this week,
28-29 June. And the outcome will be…….. “It’s difficult to see too big a jump forward
from these meetings because we have had so many until now. The past experience
tells us not to expect a significant amount of news. It’s a very much
politically-oriented market and that makes it very difficult for investors.
Investors are also nervous ahead of the second quarter earnings season,” said
Keith Bowman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

And the earnings season cannot promise a lot; even though
we have some great big listed companies; growth at the end of the day comes
from consumer buying and the consumer currently struggles with spending his money.
Also, American Companies are mostly earning their income on exports; exchanging
the foreign revenue they earn back to a strong US dollar (as is the case
currently) has a negative impact on their financials.

A bit of information on iron ore, since I recommended
Exxaro and Kumba as a short last week. In the Chinese market (biggest buyer of
raw steel) we have more supply then demand that brings iron ore prices down. An
even higher oversupply is possible. According to a Singapore-based iron ore
trade there are some people holding back lots of stock that bought on a high
price.

Gold and
oil,
no happy campers on the weak growth outlook.

To conclude, our JSE is under pressure again, because our
commodities are out of favour. We still see the financial sector holding up on good
strength, but the Euro banks weakness will eventually trickle down to our
banks.

Dyslexic Danish football fan. by Hendrick, Ross

Data
today: Annualized
new US home sales

Close
to home: Head
of Naspers & MIH of internet operations passed away/ New Kumba open pit
iron ore mine comes in on budget ahead of schedule / Moody’s downgrade may cost
ABSA / In a court case with Mr. Mahomed & other clients that were defrauded
by an ABSA employee, ABSA’s furniture was seized but returned from their Towers
in Johannesburg / Inefficient and corrupt authorities scare off new SA property
developments / ANC faces R19m lawsuit.

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessay.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: Long
Vodacom.

Exxaro and MMI recommendations were
spot on – paid out. Still holding long JD Group which turns out to be a bit
chewy. Kumba / Nedbank shorts still open.

Current
market snapshot

Happy
trading

Melanie

We offer personal assistance
and mentoring:

Email: info@charterassets.com

Or just open a CFD Account and get started:

Open an SA account – Open
SA Account.
This
account will give you access to the JSE only.

The account will need to be funded with SA Rand.

Open an offshore account – Open
FC Account.
This
account will give you access to Foreign instruments including the JSE.

The account will need to be funded in a foreign currency (GBP, USD, EUR etc).

This is my personal opinion.
Charter Asset Management (Pty) Ltd accepts no liability to this information or
any information linked to it.

by mallen

Let’s twist again

June 20, 2012 in Uncategorized

No Comments »

Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a
majority of the people. Giordano Bruno

Some idea coming out of the G20
meeting is to use the Euro Zone new bailout fund to buy debt from those fighting
high borrowing costs. Germany, Spain and Italy will meet in Rome on Friday to
give this some more thought.

In the meanwhile…… Bank of Japan
governor Shirakawa warned that Europe poses a risk to global economy: “Major
turmoil has been avoided following the outcome of the Greek election last
weekend … but there is no change in the fact that Greece faces severe conditions.
We are also on a continued watch regarding Spain.”

As much as the market is in a good mood,
oil fails to follow. This just means that not all believe in better economic
conditions in the near future. Brent
crude oil is currently trading under U$96 a barrel, lost about 25% since
March peak.

Gold
not reacting much for now. If the Fed promises more money, the
dollar will take a down turn and that would make gold attractive again.
Remember that such a money dumping move by the Fed creates inflation worries
and gold is seen as a hedge against that.

Very
important today: the Fed will announce their interest rate decision and ‘operation
twist(ing)’ or not.

Give this though a quiet moment: The
US already on two occasions have done this so called ‘quantitative easing’. While
they were on round two, some bright people warned, that round 3 is going to
happen. Well here it seems to be now! Where do we go from here… maybe QE4, QE5 etc.
etc.?

Also
happening today is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy meeting and
their unemployment report. South African monthly CPI data will be released this
afternoon.

We're gonna need a bigger goat... by Flinn, Mike

Close
to home: Rio
Tinto will spend U$3.7bil to boost Australian iron ore output, ignoring forecasted
warning demand and slowing Chinese manufacturing / Plans for new middle class
shopping centers mushroom in SA / Oceana R35m fine confirmed / Nedbank warns on
corporate cash pile / Vodacom to ‘unlock power of internet’ / Accentuate rises after India JV

Source: www.fin24.co.za / www.buinessay.co.za / Reuters

Recommendations: Still caution
your trading! We could see a major reaction upwards today, but if the Fed does
not do as expected, anticipate a major reaction downwards. Long MMI at 1750

Current
market snapshot

Market	Bid	Offer	Updated	Change
Spot Gold (100oz)	1617.26	1617.76	10:20	-0.92
Spot Silver (5000oz)	2837.9	2840.9	10:20	-3.4
Wall Street	12820.5	12824.5	10:20	-15.0
Brent Crude	9520	9528	10:20	-52
Germany 30	6355.3	6356.3	10:20	-5.7
FTSE 100	5584.7	5585.7	10:20	-5.8
South Africa 40	30682	30698	10:20	82
Platinum	1479.2	1481.2	10:20	-0.6

Market

Bid

Offer

Updated

Change

Spot Gold (100oz)

1617.26

1617.76